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The International Finance Institute says the government faces a “deterioration in the primary outcome.”

The International Finance Institute says the government faces a “deterioration in the primary outcome.”

The entity explained that the high expenditures and low revenues contradict the goal of closing the deficit in 2024

a If I The Independent Financial Institution of the Senate stated on Thursday (October 19, 2023) that the government In the short term, it faces a deterioration in the initial result.”. The entity says that there will be an increase in expenses and a decrease in revenues in 2023 and that this path “It does not converge with the goal of eliminating the primary deficit in 2024.”.

The observations are in the October Financial Monitoring Report. here complete Document (PDF – 3 MB).

The cover letter was signed by IFI Executive Director, Marcos Pestana. “There is a worrying decline in revenues, given that the desired balance is based on the need for a significant increase in revenues.”Excerpt says.

The organization lists some of the reasons for the decline in revenues in 2023:

  • The fiscal impact of reducing inflation;
  • Low prices Goods;
  • Losses in the collection of IRPJ (corporate income tax) and CSLL (social contribution on net profit).

In the annual budget bill sent to Congress, the government indicated that the initial result would be equivalent to 0% of GDP in 2024. The initial balance is formed by subtracting revenues from expenditures, without counting debt interest expenses.

“For those who need to increase revenues beyond the current level next year, this scenario presents a challenge.”Pestana says.

The International Finance Institute says that the initial result may reach a deficit of 1% in 2023. It states that there are successive declines from 2014 to 2023, with the exception of 2022.

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The entity’s director, Vilma Pinto, has sparked a controversy over Marcos Pestana’s cover letter. The document indicates that there are expectations of an increase of 0.1 percentage points for mandatory expenditures in 2024 “unexpected factors” It is able to increase the government’s initial spending, keeping it away from achieving fiscal goals.