With an ‘above normal’ hurricane season in the US at risk, California is bracing for a rare event | environment

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, have upgraded their forecasts for the 2023 hurricane season in Atlantic Ocean: Now, they consider the most likely scenario is that the period will have “above normal” activity.

Hurricane season, which lasts six months, ends November 30. But the first event of concern in the United States is Hurricane Hillarywhich is moving on the other side of the American coast and is under way in The Pacific Ocean near Mexico.

Hillary was recently upgraded to Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with winds of 178-208km/h and waves up to 2.4m. It is moving at a speed of 22 km/h and causing winds of 165 km/h on Thursday (17).

This was on the same scale as Hurricane Sandy, which in 2012 killed more than 250 people in the Caribbean and the United States.

However, tropical cyclones (the technical name for hurricanes that form in the area of ​​the United States) are Extremely rare in California, USA.

American media such as the Los Angeles Times claim that the area has not witnessed such an event since 1939.

🌪️ According to information from the United States National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hillary is located 850 kilometers from Cabo San Lucas, a tourist destination for many Americans.

The hurricane is expected to approach the Baja California Peninsula over the weekend.

According to the Mexican Meteorological Service, this phenomenon will cause Very heavy rain, strong winds and waves That should hit San Diego, Los Angeles, and the desert region of the southwestern United States (California, Nevada, and Arizona).

⛈️ Expected torrentsWhere it will continue to increase in strength in the coming days and reach the third category, with winds from 178 to 208 km / h and waves up to 3.6 meters.

According to MetSul, precipitation in Southern California should be 50 to 100 mm, and 200 to 300 mm in some specific areas.

a peak activity Will Hillary should take place between Sunday (20) and Monday (21).

It likely veered west from Los Angeles, staying over the Pacific Ocean for longer, or veered east and struck just west of Arizona.

Hurricane season in the Atlantic

NOAA’s update to the 2023 Atlantic season forecast predicts between 14 and 21 named storms (winds of 63-134 km/h or more), of which between 6 and 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 119 km/h or more), Top to five of them can become stronger tornadoes with winds of 178 km/h or more. NOAA’s current forecast has a confidence range of 70%.

“The main climatic factors expected to influence Atlantic hurricane activity in 2023 are the ongoing El Niño and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, including Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” said Matthew Rosenkrans, chief hurricane season forecaster for the Atlantic Ocean. which breaks the record. NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

“Given these factors, the updated forecast predicts more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the season to continue.”