This does not mean that temperatures will permanently stabilize above the limit, in the sense set forth in Paris Agreement Climate, which seeks to contain the increase in average temperature below 2°C with respect to pre-industrial levels and, as far as possible, to keep this increase below 1.5°C.
According to the new Climate Bulletin of the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the chances of exceeding +1.5°C have increased since 2015, when this risk was virtually non-existent.
From 2017 to 2021, the probability was 10%, but increased “to nearly 50% in 2022-2026,” according to the World Meteorological Organization. However, there is a small probability (10%) that the average for this five-year period exceeds the +1.5 °C threshold.
“This study shows, with great scientific credibility, that we are getting very close to the moment when we will tentatively reach the Paris Agreement minimum. The figure 1.5°C is not a randomly chosen statistic. It indicates the point at which we will reach the bottom line of the Paris Agreement. , Petteri Taalas, that the effects of climate will be increasingly harmful to human populations and to the entire planet.”
The forecasts in this bulletin are based on data from the UK Weather Service (the Met Office). The document states that it is very likely (93%) that at least one of the years between 2022 and 2026 will be the warmest on record (the record set by 2016).
Leon Hermansson, of the Met Office, explained that although the 1.5°C limit will be exceeded within a year, this “does not mean that we will have crossed the symbolic limit of the Paris Agreement”, but “it is a sign that we are approaching a scenario where the threshold of 1.5 could be exceeded.” degrees Celsius for an extended period.
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