Andres Nameth

Unprecedented tensions have arisen on the Ukrainian-Russian border: firefighting has become commonplace again in the front line separating Ukrainian government forces and pro-Moscow divisions, and the Russian military is dragging more and more troops to the Russian side of the border. The situation is deteriorating as Ukraine prepares for joint military exercises with NATO, which is of great concern to Moscow.

Experts on the Russian-Ukrainian border say that thousands of troops were recruited from Ukraine in 2014 by the Moscow military leadership in Crimea, much for military training but very little for invasion. Videos posted on social media, technology is also coming to the area, trains carrying tanks and armored vehicles are moving west and south. Records also show that Russian soldiers stamped the license plates of their vehicles – the last time Ukraine was preparing to invade eastern Ukraine in Moscow – during the 2014 occupation of Crimea, when dirty work was carried out by “decent green populations” without group signals. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov went so far as to say:

If Kiev decides to attack, Ukraine could be destroyed as a state.

Ukrainian soldiers in the Donetsk region


Fog motives, passive west

It is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving the post. The whole world seems to want to see how the Kremlin combines troops with bright daylight and long train trains across the border. Plus, soMoscow did not predict military exercises in the area, and thousands of soldiers began talking about it when they were in the area for a long time.

The West does not know what to do, for example, France and Germany have called on both sides to do everything they can to defuse tensions. The position of Paris and Berlin has angered many. Former Estonian foreign leader Tomas Hendrik Ilves said the behavior of EU-dominated countries was openly immoral. “So Russian troops are already gathering your forces and equipment in your area. The Germans are saying that everyone should do things to defuse the tension. What about you? German foreign politicians are certainly not idiots. You are backboneless and immoral,” the Estonian politician wrote.

While there are fears in Kiev, Russia could target an attack on Ukrainian member Hersh – from which it could supply water to the Crimean peninsula, which is struggling with severe water shortages – and many analysts believe Moscow is using troops as a threat. He is trying to show that he can warm up at any moment to the conflict that erupted in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and killed more than 14,000, but it seems to have cooled in recent months.

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NATO in Ukraine

The situation was further complicated by the announcement in Ukraine that Ukraine would conduct joint military exercises with NATO in a few months, involving more than a thousand soldiers from the five member states of the North Atlantic Alliance. “In practice, they first carry out defensive operations and then launch an offensive to restore the country’s legal boundaries, which have been replaced by the occupation of enemy neighboring countries,” Kiev said. In this announcement, one cannot fail to notice that hostile neighbors Russia and Kiev are currently planning to retake areas under the joint control of separatists and the Russian military. Although the exact time of the exercise has not yet been announced, Moscow has already said that the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine will increase tensions and force Russia to take further steps to ensure its security. Incidentally, the United States has sold a significant amount of military equipment to Kiev in recent years: anti-tank weapons, radars, ships and transport vehicles have arrived in Ukraine.

Ukrainian soldiers in the front row


Distrust between Moscow and the West

The escalation of the crisis in eastern Ukraine is inseparable from the gradual deterioration of relations between the West and Russia. The occupation of Crimea, the 2018 South Russian intelligence assassination attempt on former Russian intelligence official Sergei Skribal, and the imprisonment of Alexei Navalny, the best Russian opposition leader, led to several EU and US sanctions against Moscow. Moscow has responded to counter-sanctions by announcing that the country will rapidly expand cooperation with China as relations between the EU and Russia are almost paralyzed. Amid almost complete disbelief between the West and Russia, in eastern Ukraine, there is a risk of a serious conflict erupting again, even for the purposes of the partners.

It should not be forgotten that the popularity of Russian President Vladimir Putin is at a very low point, and so far as it has happened, the Kremlin has always improved the situation with a military adventure. Putin’s reputation, then unknown, was created by the Second Chechen War, which began in 1999 and ended with a Russian victory. The war in Georgia in 2008 and the annexation of Crimea in 2014 pushed back Putin’s declining support. While it is not possible for the Kremlin to prepare for a large-scale operation in eastern Ukraine, there is currently no other way to increase state support: the economy is performing poorly, the price of hydrocarbons in Russian exports is so high that sanctions have already been felt for a long time. Russian capital is leaving the country, and the lack of foreign investment is contributing to the economic stagnation.

Corona virus and Russian statistics

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Contrary to all rumors, treating the corona virus epidemic is not a success story: Russia, with 4.6 million people, is infected with the fifth disease, although officially few, the epidemic has killed about 100,000 lives compared to the number of patients. This means that the complications of Govt-19 caused more deaths than Moscow acknowledged. Experts warn that a third wave could emerge when the population vaccine is slow – six per cent in the country: the number of new cases is expected to rise by thirty per cent in the next two weeks.

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