The year begins with river flows below the historical average; ONS can activate thermal power plants to meet demand Economy

The year 2024 will begin with water flow in rivers, used to generate energy by hydroelectric power plants, below the historical average of the wet period. The data was released by the National Electrical System Operator (ONS) on Friday (29).

“We observe, for January 2024, a convergence of factors such as the possibility of above-average summer temperatures, increasing loads and declining affluence,” National Statistics Office Director General Luiz Carlos Ciucci said in a note.

Water flow is an important indicator of the electrical system because most hydropower plants are riverbeds – that is, they do not have reservoirs or have reservoirs that are not relevant. In these cases, the power generation capacity is directly related to river flow.

According to Ciucci, “this scenario is being monitored closely” because it may require more from the system to meet peak power consumption.

“In these cases, it may be necessary to resort to sending thermoelectric resources to complete the loading ramp at specific times,” the Director General explained.

Thermal power plants are more expensive and are usually activated by the ONS to ensure energy supply when renewable sources cannot meet demand.

When more thermal power plants are activated, the cost of generation increases and the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) can trigger yellow, red 1 or red 2 tariff flags, representing higher costs for the consumer.

Anil announced on Friday (29) that the tariff flag will remain green in January, at no additional cost. The agency's director general said in a statement, “The sign confirms the good energy conditions in the country.”

The ONS report also forecasts an 11.1% increase in electricity demand in January 2024 compared to the same month in 2023, due to higher than average temperatures.

As temperatures rise, energy demand increases because people use more air conditioners, fans and refrigerators, for example.