The election campaigns of Sergio Massa, the Peronist candidate and current Minister of Economy of Argentina; and Javier Miley, the far-right candidate, are mainly guided by the country’s economic issues.
The Brazilian government cautiously anticipates future negotiations with the neighboring country – whether bilateral or collective.
Itamaraty was listened to by the interviewers Globo News It states that “there is a network of interests between the two countries independent of the two current governments” and that “certain issues are part of the relations of the two countries.”
Against the backdrop of statements from sources in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there are threats of Argentina’s possible exit from Mercosur, which were made by candidate Javier Miley throughout the election campaign.
Miley, who came in second place in the first round of elections, has made statements over the past few months in which she stated that Mercosur – a bloc founded by Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay – should not be strengthened because it is a “failure.”
The self-identified populist candidate also says he is against his country’s membership in BRICS – a bloc that currently includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and could, in addition to Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Ethiopia, get the United Arab Emirates and Iran.
Itamaraty’s sources also state that even Uruguay has already threatened to leave the South American bloc, but, according to Itamaraty’s analysis, this is a “decision that has an internal cost” and would make economic sectors react.
Despite the rhetoric, Brazilian diplomacy realizes that Milley’s possible election should not lead to the end of relations between the two countries, especially trade relations. Argentina is Brazil’s third-largest trading partner, after the United States and China, and Brazil’s main economic partner in South America.
Argentina: Javier Miley and Sergio Massa debate for the last time before the elections
However, one point of interest for the Foreign Office is the possibility that the outcome in Argentina could impact trade agreement negotiations between Mercosur and the EU.
Progress in negotiations between the two blocs to end what has been going on for more than 20 years is one of the priorities of the Brazilian government, which sees the last weeks of 2023 as a key moment for the success of the project.
In Itamaraty’s assessment, Brazilian government interlocutors received signals to reassure the country. “There are people from Miley’s campaign who are sending signals that Brazil should remain quiet on bilateral issues. But when it comes to personality, anything is possible.” Globo News.
Miley is critical of the government of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and has already labeled the Workers’ Party member a “socialist with a totalitarian vocation.” Peronist candidate Sergio Massa is allied with the Workers’ Party government and has the support of current President Alberto Fernandez. It is considered a friend of squid.
In the recent presidential debate between Massa and Milley, the relationship with Brazil was one of the points of discussion. Massa accused Miley of wanting to sever ties with the country.
“You are part of the government that [o presidente] Alberto Fernandez did not speak either [o ex-presidente brasileiro Jair ]Bolsonaro. So what’s the problem if I talk or don’t talk to Lula?’, Miley asked, after his opponent criticized him for saying he would not meet the Labor MP if elected.
Camarotti: The government seeks not to fall into the trap of candidate Miley’s “provocations” in Argentina
“Resco Miley” predicts the Mercosur summit
The date was chosen by the Brazilian government, which holds the interim presidency of the bloc, so that the commitment would take place, in addition to logistical issues, before the new Argentine president took office.
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