What is the magic number that Botafogo will reach to be champion? Mathematicians calculate chances by scoring

Fans Botafogo She is eager to be able to scream. With ten rounds remaining Brazilian ChampionshipGlorioso leads by seven points and can reduce the gap to ten points on Sunday when it hosts Cuiaba.

But how long will it take Botafogo to secure the title? The Chance de Gaulle website, which specializes in football odds, calculated the chances of a team’s final result becoming champions, based on the current situation.

The portal indicates that the team that finishes the season with 78 points will have a 99% chance of winning the championship. With 76 points, this ranges from 90% to 97%, depending on the break-even criteria – this would theoretically be the “magic score”.

The thesis defended by broadcaster Andre Rizk last Thursday was also echoed in the calculations. According to the Goal Chance website, with a score of 74 points, the team has a 60% chance of winning the championship.

To reach 74 points, Botafogo will need to score 15 points in the last 10 rounds (50% success rate). If you score another point, your chances of finishing as champion increase to 70%.

To reach the “magic score” of 76 points, Botafogo would need a further 17 points – five wins and two draws, for example. Deputy leader Red Bull Bragantino, to reach the same 76th point, would need an additional 24 points out of a possible 27 (89% success rate).

Score to be a champion – Goal Chance:

74 points – 60%
75 points – 70%
76 points – 90% to 97%
78 points – 99%
80 points – 100%