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Vasco’s chance of relegation after Round 22

Vasco’s chance of relegation after Round 22

For the first time in the Brazilian league, Botafogo lost at home on Saturday against Flamengo, to reduce its supremacy at the top of the championship. However, a negative tie between Palmeiras and Corinthians, on Sunday, kept the difference between the first and second places in a double digit. Now, Alvinegro is 10 points behind the team led by Abel Ferreira, and has an 89.6% chance of winning the title at the end of the 38 rounds. See more numbers from the Brasileirão Crystal Ball, a GLOBO tool developed in partnership with UFMG.


Vice-captain, Palmeiras is the main contender in Botafogo’s chase, and with 41 points, today has a 4.4% chance of being Brazilian champions. Gremio, in third place, with one match left, has a chance of 4.3%. The top five is completed by Fluminense, who are fifth in the table and have a probability of 2.3%, and Flamengo, who have a chance of 1.9%.


América-MG’s 2-0 win over Santos pushed Coritiba to last place, and ensured Alfinegro’s stay at Z4. With just 14 points in 21 rounds – and one game still to go – Koxa has the highest relegation probability, at 88.7%. Then comes the hare with a chance of 79.4%. Vasco, who managed to draw with Bahia, has a chance of 69.6%, while Santos has 56.5%, and the Bahia tricolor completes the top five with 38%.

Ranking Libertadores

The 51 points practically guarantee Botafogo qualification to the 2024 Libertadores, seven years after their last participation. Today, the team has a 99.97% chance of getting the vacant position, followed by Palmeiras (89.6%), Gremio (85.2%), Flamengo (80.3%) and Fluminense (78.9%).

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Ranking for South America

The clubs in the middle of the table have more modest intentions to return, and the vacancy in South America is the goal of several clubs. Of these, whoever has the best chance is Atlético MG, in ninth place, with a probability of 63.9%. Fortaleza, eighth, with 61.7%, and Atlético, sixth, with 61.1%. Sao Paulo (57.8%) and Cuiabá (55.6%) are other strong contenders.