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Facing defenses suffering from few surrenders at Flamengo against Corinthians |  intuition center

Facing defenses suffering from few surrenders at Flamengo against Corinthians | intuition center

On the field, there are two well-organized defenses: Flamengo are the second team to have left the most opponents offside, 57 times (average 1.84, second highest), and Corinthians are the third team to have had the most obstacles, 58 times (average 1.81, third highest). The Sao Paulo team played another match that went against the averages.

Flamengo are the third team at home to suffer from fewer servings (9.2) and takes one goal for every 11.3 offense scores (10th house mark). Corinth is the third least stressed visitor (11.8 entries made per match) and has the fourth highest visiting resistance, with a goal conceding for every 13.4 serves against him. It’s just a coincidence, but in the last round, it was Sao Paulo that the home team suffered the fewest applications, but even so thrashed Flamengo 4-0.

In search of a new victory that preserves his chances of winning the Brazilian title, Flamengo will need to take care of their airspace, as they have suffered seven of the last 10 goals from aerial playCorinthians scored half of the last ten goals this way.

actually Corinthians have conceded seven of the last 10 goals in an exchange for low passes, Flamengo scored no less than eight of the top ten in this way. Among the host team, Flamengo was the third to finish the most (15.6), and has the fifth highest efficiency, scoring a goal every 9.2 attempts.

Róger Guedes celebrates in Corinthians x Cuiabá – Photo: Marcos Ribolli

Flamengo is the second best host for Brazil (11 W, 1 L, 4 D, 71%), with third best home attack (28 goals, 1.75 average), and sixth defense (13 goals, 0.81).

Corinth is the fifth best visitor (5 W, 7 L, 4 D, 46%) with the 12th attack (13 goals, average 0.81), but with the second best visiting defense (14 goals conceded, 0.88).

Gabigol celebrates at Flamengo x Bahia – Photo: Jorge Rodriguez/AGIF

Probability of each outcome

  • Flamingo – 56.0%
  • Draw – 26.1%
  • Corinth – 17.9%

To calculate the probabilities of each outcome, economist Bruno Imazumi uses a statistical model that uses the bivariate Poisson distribution along with the Monte Carlo simulation method. Based on the parameters determined through the analysis of more than 78 thousand participations in Brazil collected by Espião Estatístico since 2013, it evaluates the recent performance of the teams in the season, mainly using the Goal Prediction (xG) indicators.