In contrast to the negative consumption conditions found in Brazil, the warmer economy and rising incomes in the United States favor year-end sales expectations. The National Federation of Retailers estimates they will grow between 8.5% and 10.5%, coming in between $ 843.4 billion and $ 859 billion. Numbers exclude car dealerships, gas stations and restaurants. The average increase over the past five years is 4.4%.
“The holiday shopping season is gaining considerable momentum,” said Matthew Shaw, chairman and CEO of the NRF. According to him, American consumers are living in a very favorable environment because incomes are rising and “household balances are never strong”.
“Retailers make significant investments in their supply chains and spend more to ensure they have products on their shelves to meet this moment of exceptional consumer demand,” the Chairman adds.
E-commerce will increase exponentially
A NRF Online sales and out-of-store sales, in total, are expected to increase between 11% and 15% to $ 218.3 billion and $ 226.2 billion, respectively.
While e-commerce is important, American families should also shop in person at the end of the year.
“The outlook for the holidays is very good,” said Jack Kleinhenes, chief economist at NRF. According to him, households will “spend” most of their spending “seriously” by 2021 and will be “with a lot of purchasing power” by the end of the year.
NRF expects U.S. retailers to employ between 500,000 and 665,000 seasonal employees, up from 486,000 seasonal employees in 2020.
The NRF is based on economic models that take into account indicators such as forecast, employment, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit, past retail and weather.
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