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England on course for 5th Prime Ministership in 15 years

Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss dispute succession in British government less than two-and-a-half years before new election

The Conservative Party on Wednesday (20.Jul.2022) named the 2 finalists for the post of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Former Finance Minister Rishi Sunak and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss are now vying for the votes of the party’s 160,000 members. The result will be announced on September 5 when the British Parliament resumes after the summer recess. This Monday (25.July.2022), both will participate in a debate organized by them. BBC.

Sunak topped all 5 votes among conservative lawmakers. Truss appeared to be the “3rd way” but was overtaken by Trade Minister Benny Mordant in the last internal round. Now, it’s a favorite. Sunak’s advantage among his Westminster peers was not reflected in public opinion. YouGov poll points to Truss success By a comfortable margin. If she wins, she will be the 3rd lady. Sunak may be the first Indian origin to rule the country.

Whoever wins, life in Downing Street – the street that houses the official residence – could be short. The recent revenue history of the UK shows this. Boris Johnson’s successor takes office on September 7, around 2 years and 4 months from the next general elections. They are scheduled for January 2025. But it will soon be over. From 2015 to 2019, Britain went to the polls 3 times. Result: 3 of the last 4 Prime Ministers did not last 4 years.

Apart from Johnson (2019-2022), his predecessor Theresa May (2016-2019) and Labour’s Gordon Brown (2007-2010) held fewer than 1,200. The UK has its 5th head of government in 15 years, including Conservative David Cameron (2010-2016). Europe’s biggest economy is in a state of instability not seen for decades. Prior to 2007, the country had had 3 Prime Ministers in 28 years: 2 Conservatives and 1 Labour.

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If Sunak or Truss wins the 2025 election, there is a chance to stay in office, but for that, it is necessary to change the opinion among the people. The Tories – known as conservatives. The party has been in power since 2010 and has an absolute majority in parliament since 2015. Despite internal divisions and riots, it dominates Westminster. The latest example is the December 2019 election, when Boris Johnson called for a strengthening of the governing base.

Now the scene is different. Since the start of the year, Labor has led the polls. Currently, they have 40% preference, against 29% conservatives.. The Liberal Democrats, traditionally the 3rd party in London, rose 7 percentage points to 15% since January.

The British parliamentary system is not based solely on percentage of votes, but on representation in constituencies. Each elects 1 legislator. That means winning locally is important, not nationally. Even so, the proximity of the Liberal Democrats is a warning signal. The party never burst the Conservative-Labour bubble, but it was necessary for government coalitions, as it was in 2010. During that time, Cameron briefly formed a coalition to govern with a majority in the House of Commons.

This could be the path to a viable Labor administration that has only had 2 premiers in the last 43 years. Now, after 5 years of Jeremy Corbyn’s defeat, Keir Starmer leads the opposition. Read a history of UK voting intentions polls since January:

Turbulent Parliamentarianism

It’s not just London where premieres don’t last. At least 6 EU countries have worse turnover situations. Another recent example is Italy, famous for its political instability. Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigned last Thursday (July 21, 2022) after three coalition parties failed to support him in a vote of confidence in Parliament. Draghi, a former head of the Italian central bank, took office in February 2021 on the nomination of President Sergio Mattarella.

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With his departure imminent, Italy will elect its 8th prime minister from 2010. In this 12-year cycle, no Speaker of Parliament has been in power for 3 years.

Austria and Bulgaria passed 9 decrees during this period. On the other side of the coin, Mark Rutte (Netherlands) and Viktor Orbán (Hungary) have been serving as prime ministers since 2010. In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel stepped down as leader of the Bundestag (parliament) last year after 16 years. The work is now in the hands of Olaf Scholz.